NBA 2025

NBA playoffs 2025: Down 3-1, can Celtics or Warriors make history?

The second round of the NBA playoffs has been full of twists and turns. Road upsets! Late comebacks! Overtime thrillers!

And untimely injuries to the league's brightest stars, a tremendous bummer that doesn't warrant an exclamation point.

On Tuesday, the fifth-seeded Indiana Pacers became the first team to advance to the conference finals. Three more teams will join them in the coming days.

As the playoffs continue with must-win games for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night, let's take stock of the most important trends and takeaways from the second round thus far, including which recent champion has the easier climb.

Celtics or Warriors: Who has the better chance to rally from 3-1?

The Celtics and Warriors have a lot in common at this point of the postseason. Both have championship aspirations but are one loss away from elimination, with their leading scorer sidelined due to a leg injury.

But which one has a better chance to become the 14th team in NBA history -- and the first since the 2020 Denver Nuggets -- to overcome a 3-1 deficit to advance?

Boston's title defense, already in danger, just got another major blow as Jayson Tatum underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles tendon suffered during Monday's loss.

The argument for the Warriors, meanwhile, is that Stephen Curry might return from his strained hamstring during this round. But the Warriors will be hard-pressed to complete that full formula -- win a road Game 5 against the Minnesota Timberwolves without him and sneak into a Game 6, where Curry's potential boost could prove enough in Games 6 and 7. And Curry's return is no guarantee, as hamstring strains tend to linger. And his play style relies on constant movement and sharp cuts, potentially risking additional long-term damage if Curry returns too soon.

Without him, the Warriors simply don't have enough offensive firepower. In the regular season, their offensive rating was just 107.0 with Curry on the bench, per Cleaning the Glass, which ranked in the 11th percentile leaguewide. And despite Jimmy Butler III's presence, they've been even worse in the playoffs, with a ghastly 101.9 offensive rating (1st percentile) without Curry.

The Celtics have more talent beyond Tatum, and they had a robust plus-7.8 net rating without their star this year, versus plus-9.8 with him. That gap has widened in the playoffs because of other costly injuries to Boston's core, making the team more reliant on Tatum's individual brilliance. Sam Hauser hasn't played since hurting his ankle in Game 1, and Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are playing at less than 100% health.

Those limitations will hamper any comeback hopes, but the Celtics' ceiling without Tatum is still higher than the Warriors' sans Curry. Boston would also play a potential Game 7 at home, while Golden State would have to win on the road.